THE IMPACT OF RUSSIA’S MILITARY AGGRESSION ON THE FORMATION OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS OF POST-SOVIET COUNTRIES AND SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE

. The economic consequences of the war in Ukraine are felt all over the world. Russian aggression has put pressure on global commodity prices, exacerbated disruptions in supply chains, and fueled inflation in most countries around the world. The countries that have decided to support russia today, or are trying to avoid confrontation with them, should be clearly aware that in the eyes of Ukrainians and the whole world they are silent accomplices in crimes and genocide against the Ukrainian people. The purpose of the article is to analyze how the countries of the former USSR reacted to the russian aggression against Ukraine, the statements of politicians and the decisions of the governments of the countries that, together with Ukraine, were part of the USSR until 1991; to determine how Westernization affects macroeconomic indicators and the formation of European values in the countries of the post-Soviet space. The article defines aspects of the formation of macroeconomic factors in the countries of the post-Soviet space. It was determined that despite the right of the union republics to state sovereignty formally enshrined in the Constitution, the USSR was actually a unitary state. It was created as a highly centralized, totalitarian and authoritarian system, incompatible with the principles of democracy, free and full development of nations. The study analyzes when the whole world expresses support and help to Ukrainians, at the same time, some post-Soviet countries, in particular, the leader of Kyrgyzstan, expressed support to the Russian president. Another ally in russia's war against Ukraine is Tajikistan. The main components of the economic factor of Westernization are considered: GDP per capita, capital investments and the size of the minimum wage. To calculate the extent to which groups of post-Soviet states are related in the studied macroeconomic indicators, we calculated the coefficient of variation based on the standard deviation.


INTRODUCTION
The russian invasion launched missile strikes on Ukrainian cities on the morning of February 24, 2022 and the ground invasion began from the territory of russia, belarus and the occupied territories of Crimea, as well as the areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions not controlled by Ukraine.However, Ukraine, which demonstrates indomitability to the whole world, clearly declares its messages regarding the recovery and restoration of democracy and involvement in the European community.
When the whole world expresses support and help to the Ukrainians, at the same time, some post-Soviet countries, in particular the leader of Kyrgyzstan, Sadyr Zhaparov, expressed support to the russian president regarding the invasion and "defense of Donbas".Another ally in Russia's war against Ukraine is Tajikistan.The former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Pavlo Klimkin, noted that Putin "will be able to push these countries to cynical aggression" (http://surl.li/oznqqrussia's) war with Ukraine showed all aspects of Westernization, including the support of some countries of the post-Soviet space and the promotion of European values in their states.It can be noted that it divided the post-Soviet states into two camps: the first, which support Ukraine, help and defend European values and democracy; the second -they support the actions of the head of the kremlin and the dictatorship in their countries.
The purpose of the article is to determine all factors of influence on the macroeconomic indicators of the countries of the post-Soviet space and support for Ukraine.

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
British researcher Sarah Whitmore rightly emphasizes that the post-Soviet republics inherited the "proto-states" from the USSR.The former Soviet republics especially lacked the basic attributes of statehood, such as defined and internationally recognized borders, above all, and a national army.Many military experts, in particular, are now pointing out that much of the military equipment with which russia is currently at war was inherited from the Soviet Union.Sarah Whitmore notes two main reasons for the weakness of the post-Soviet states: 1) the paralyzing role of the communist party, which usurped state functions and left state institutions undeveloped and without relevant experience of functioning; 2) the concentration of all key decision-making processes in moscow, which prevented republican state institutions from performing their own functions (Whitmore, 2004) In addition, one should take into account the significant inertia of the transformation of the Soviet heritage, fixed at the level of state structures and socio-political institutions (the so-called "institutional memory"), which depends on the depth of the ties of the respective countries with moscow.In particular, the least modernized countries during the Soviet era are characterized by the weakest state institutions after gaining independence and are more closely tied to russia (for example, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, belarus).
As researchers Henry Carey and Rafal Rachiborski emphasize, the less time post-communist countries (meaning also the countries of Central and Eastern Europe) were under the influence of Soviet power, the more successful their development was after 1991 (Carey, 2003).

RESEARCH OBJECTIVE, METHODOLOGY AND DATA
The article used general scientific methods of macroeconomics, in particular: the method of scientific abstraction; method of analysis and synthesis; the method of historical and logical unity; method of system-functional analysis.The main method is macroeconomic aggregation, which means combining phenomena and processes into a single entity.Aggregation of values characterizes the market situation and its change (GDP / GNP, general price level, inflation level, level of capital investments, etc.).

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Post-Soviet states were traditionally divided into five groups.All of them are based mainly on the territorial principle, with the exception of the Baltic countries, which, unlike the completely geographically European states, managed to quickly integrate into the European Union, both culturally and economically: Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan), Baltic countries (Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia), South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia), Eastern Europe (belarus, Moldova, Ukraine).
Regarding "institutional memory", in our opinion, it is also necessary to point out that the Soviet authorities did everything possible to eradicate national identity and national consciousness in the countries of the Soviet Union, most of all this concerned the Ukrainians.
Westernization is a process of social change by which society adopts Western patterns of political development, legal functioning, economic relations, cultural discourse, and way of life.
The Westernization Index is a tool aimed at measuring the degree to which post-Soviet countries and societies (not including russia) have adopted or permeated Western culture in all key areas for each country.(Table 1).The westernization index was calculated for the first time in 2018, and is calculated every two years.The Westernization Index is based on a number of elements and benchmarks that help assess the adoption and implementation of the Western model, looking at five key factors: -political; -economical; -legal; -linguistic and cultural; -lifestyle.
Tab. Scientists limited the Index to five areas.Each area (which has several sub-areas) is weighted differently in the Index to capture the relative importance of each sector to the overall shift to the West.The weight of each of the first three areas is 25%, the fourth 15%, and the fifth 10%.The maximum possible score is 100%, which represents complete westernization.
The index is based on two complementary types of analysis.First, qualitative expert assessments provided by researchers were calculated, then quantitative data available in open sources.These two methodologies are combined to reflect the status of complete westernization.The organization cooperates with local experts in each country, who are the authors of qualitative assessments, and the local research and analytical center New Europe Center, which collected the data used (Table 2).It should be noted that it was russian aggression that prompted the post-Soviet countries to finally decide on their vectors for the development of foreign economic policy.And although the westernization index was calculated based on the results of 2020-2021, the long-standing strategic directions of the countries' development were only confirmed.For example, in 2021, belarus deepened its integration within the framework of the Union State with russia, so there is nothing new in the fact that the belarusian authorities again entered into conflict with the European Union and openly help the head of the kremlin.The desire of the President of belarus, lukashenka, to retain power, led to a decrease in the westernization index of this country, in particular by 12%, compared to 2020.(https://www.strategeast.org/strategeast-westernization-index-2020/)

Countries
Only three states received the maximum marks, as they are members of both the European Union and the WTO -these are Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia.Six post-Soviet countries are included in the EU's Eastern Partnership policy, namely Armenia, Azerbaijan, belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine.Three of the six countries have more developed relations with the EU: Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova.In 2022, after the russian invasion, Moldova's European integration plans also accelerated.(https://www.strategeast.org/strategeast-westernization-index-2022-2/) In particular, the capital of Moldova, Chisinau, perceived this as a window of opportunity and also applied for membership in the European Union.Moldova submitted its application on March 3, 2022, and already on April 11, the EU provided Moldova with a questionnaire, the completion of which is the first step to the status of a candidate for EU membership.In particular, the President of Ukraine signed the application for Ukraine's accession to the EU on February 28, 2022.(https://www.strategeast.org/strategeast-westernization-index-2022-2/)There are even opinions that Moldova openly took advantage of the war and European empathy for it to promote its own interests.
Let's consider the main components of the macroeconomic factor of Westernization: GDP per capita, capital investment and the size of the minimum wage.

Tab. 7 GDP per capita and capital investment per capita of the countries of the South Caucasus Source: Compiled by the authors based on the Global Economy
To calculate the extent to which the groups of post-Soviet states are related in the studie macroeconomic indicators (Table 8), we will calculate the coefficient of variation based on the standard deviation.The higher the coefficient of variation, the less homogeneous the population and the less typical the average for this population.It is established that the population is quantitatively homogeneous if the coefficient of variation does not exceed 33%.(https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/capital_investment_dollars/).

Tab. 8
The main macroeconomic indicators of the post-Soviet states ( 2021

Source: Compiled by the authors based on the Global Economy
The most homogeneous population, which does not exceed 33%, is in the Baltic countries, which adhere to the Western vector and a clear foreign economic policy.A no less homogeneous population was found in the countries of Central Asia.Each of these countries has its own vector of development and establishes its own foreign policy (Table 9).

Tab. 9
The coefficient of variation based on the standard deviation calculated for the analyzed variables for the indicated groups of countries in 2021 (in%)

A group of countries
Vx2021 for a variable:

Source: calculated by the authors
All the countries of the European Union supported Ukraine and condemned the aggression of the russian Federation, therefore directly on the index of westernization in 2024.will be influenced by factors related to military actions on the territory of Ukraine and how each of the countries of the post-Soviet space responded to them.
Regarding the support of the Baltic countries, it should be noted that Estonia was one of the first countries to recognize the actions of the military-political leadership of the russian federation as genocide of the Ukrainian people.Thus, Estonia became the first country to recognize russia's actions in Ukraine as genocide.The corresponding statement was unanimously approved by the Estonian Parliament.In addition, Estonian parliamentarians called to support the investigation of the crimes of the Russian Federation and bring the perpetrators to justice (https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/newsestoniya-viyna-v-ukrayini-henotsyd/31814413.html).
Estonia provided support to Ukraine in the amount of more than 230 million euros, which amounted to 1.5% of their GDP in 2022.Lithuania also supported Ukraine and provided military aid only in 2022.for 283 million euros, and in 2023 this amount will increase by another 40 million, Minister of Defense Arvidas Anusauskas told the Delfi portal.(https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/3595647-vijna-vukraini-davno-b-zakincilasa-akbi-zahid-dopomagav-aktivnise-vicepremer-latvii.html).Latvia, which has a population of less than 2 million, provided Ukraine with military aid in 2022. in the amount of more than 300 million euros.
As for the states of Central Asia, Kazakhstan is considered a close ally of russia.In particular, Kazakhstan is a member of a number of international organizations created at the initiative of russia for the integration of former post-Soviet countries: the CIS, the CSTO, and the Eurasian Economic Union.According to American journalists, russia asked Kazakhstan to join its occupation forces in Ukraine, but the latter refused.
The leader of Kyrgyzstan directly supported the aggressor.In particular, during a telephone conversation, the presidents of the states discussed the situation regarding the conduct of a "special military operation" by the aggressor state on the territory of Ukraine.Another probable ally in russia's war against Ukraine is Tajikistan.
Uzbekistan took a neutral position regarding russia's attack on Ukraine.However, one of the country's largest banks announced the suspension of money transfers from the russian Federation.The authorities of Turkmenistan have recently been focused on the elections, so they did not or did not want to pay much attention to Ukraine.In particular, they tried to avoid the topic of russia's military aggression on television.
Among the three countries of the South Caucasus -Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia -the latter took russia's military aggression closest to its heart.Humanitarian aid is regularly sent to Ukraine from Georgia, the country accepts Ukrainian refugees, but at the same time, the Georgian government is very cautious and does not openly oppose russia.It should be noted that the russian-Georgian armed conflict of 2008 over South Ossetia, which the russian side called a "peace enforcement operation", is still in the memory of Georgians, and should remain so.According to the same scenario, russia wanted to carry out an operation defense of Donbas.
At the same time, for Armenia and Azerbaijan, russia is an ally and a partner that participates in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict.
As for Ukraine's neighbors, as already mentioned, Moldova, together with Ukraine, applied for EU membership.In Belarus, as long as Putin's ally will hold power, as long as the state will move away from European values.In particular, in 2024, Belarus may fall to the last place in the westernization index, as all political sanctions will also be reflected in the economic factor.

CONCLUSION
Now, in our opinion, the most appropriate is the phrase of Erik Reinert, a well-known Norwegian economist, who likes to repeat the phrase during his speeches in Kyiv: "In reforms, don't do what Western consultants tell you.Do what they themselves are currently doing in their own countries ".It is necessary to build the latest production facilities and carry out industrialization with an emphasis on mechanical engineering, and not on the export of blanks.From the "agrarian superpower" and the "granary of Europe" Ukraine must become an "innovative modernized state".A nation that built aircraft carriers and space rockets 30 years ago should remember this.союзником у війні росії проти України є Таджикистан.