COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT OF INTERNATIONAL SUPPLY RISKS BASED ON COMPONENT AND HIERARCHICAL APPROACHES
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15330/apred.1.22.276-285Keywords:
economic, organizational and managerial, technological, logistical, environmental and social, geopolitical components of international supply risks, risk tree, integral assessment indicatorAbstract
The article analyzes international supply risks and proposes a system of indicators for their assessment by identifying the key components that shape these risks. The identification of these components provides a conceptual basis for the systematization of relevant indicators and enables a comprehensive risk assessment using an integrated indicator. Furthermore, the identified components and assessment indicators facilitated the development of a hierarchical risk tree. At the first level, the risk tree comprises the principal components of international supply risks: economic, organizational and managerial, technological, logistical, environmental and social, and geopolitical. The economic component ensures the financial stability of supply processes; the organizational and managerial component reflects the effectiveness of management through interaction with suppliers; the technological component characterizes supply processes in terms of technological equipment, automation, and digitalization; the logistical component determines the timeliness and reliability of deliveries; the environmental and social component reflects compliance with international environmental standards; and the geopolitical component captures the influence of external environmental factors on supply processes. The second level is formed as a system of indicators that detail each component and enable their quantitative measurement. Based on the proposed hierarchical approach, an integral indicator for assessing international supply risks has been developed, allowing for a comprehensive evaluation of their level and consideration of the impact of diverse factors. The proposed approach contributes to improving the validity of managerial decision-making in the field of international logistics and supply. Its practical application enables enterprises to timely identify critical risks and minimize their impact on performance. In addition, the use of the integral indicator provides opportunities for comparative analysis of risks over time and across different enterprises or markets. The obtained results can serve as a basis for developing risk management strategies under conditions of globalization challenges and environmental instability.
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