POST-WAR ECONOMIC RECONSTRUCTION MODEL FOR UKRAINE

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyze the factors of post-war reconstruction and build a model to substantiate the ways and prospects of economic recovery of Ukraine, taking into account international experience. The article employs a complex of general scientific and special research methods: the method of analysis and synthesis was used to study the impact of the war on economic development and the processes of post-war reconstruction; the method of systematization made it possible to identify the main factors of post-war reconstruction; econometric modeling helped to verify the relationship between economic growth and individual structural factors of development; the generalization method was used to formulate conclusions regarding possible directions of post-war reconstruction in Ukraine.

The article systematizes conceptual approaches to the post-war reconstruction of the economy and identifies the following key factors: gross capital accumulation as an investment basis for recovery; development of the manufacturing industry; level of external integration of the economy; the country's ability to attract foreign direct investment; inflation as an indicator of macroeconomic instability. To empirically substantiate the choice of strategic directions for post-war reconstruction in Ukraine, a panel regression model was constructed, enabling assessment of the relationship between economic growth rates and key factors of post-war reconstruction in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia. It is determined that the strategy for the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine should be based on productive investment accumulation, development of the manufacturing industry, modernization of critical infrastructure, defense and technological renewal, energy and logistical sustainability, return and development of human capital. Econometric evaluation has refined this hypothesis: gross capital formation has the strongest positive relationship with economic growth rates, and the share of manufacturing in the baseline model is also associated with higher growth dynamics. The impact of exports, foreign direct investment, and inflation is not automatic; it depends on the structure of production, macrofinancial stability, the institutional environment, and government coordination.