EVOLUTIONARY MODEL OF STRATEGIC ANALYSIS OF A REGIONAL INVESTMENT PROJECT
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15330/apred.2.21.169-179Keywords:
investment project, region, evolutionary model, strategies, sustainable developmentAbstract
This article analyzes the strategic decisions regarding a regional investment project in conditions of stakeholder interaction. A three-way evolutionary game model between central and local authorities and the investor is constructed. Strategies for evolutionary stability are analyzed, the influence of various factors on the choice of a three-side strategy is also determined, and the stability of equilibrium in the evolutionary game system is determined. It is assumed that in the process of an evolutionary game, all stakeholders adhere to a familiar strategy of behavior, do not predict future behavioral choices, but only analyze existing strategies of other stakeholders, and at the same time, the choice of strategies is carried out under the influence of the external environment and other factors, and the information of the parties is incomplete. Central authorities (administrative and managerial side) have strategies that consist in intervention or non-intervention at the stage of making an investment decision on the implementation of a regional project. Local authorities (local self-government) have strategies that consist in conducting or not conducting negotiations by representatives of local authorities regarding the investment project. The investor has strategies based on self-interest and public interest needs. The first strategy is to support the sustainable development of the region with public interest in mind, which is called support, and the second strategy is to take self-interest more into account. The results show that the lower the cost of intervention and the reward for both parties, and the high opportunity cost of non-intervention, the more likely the central government will choose the intervention strategy. Increasing the negotiation gains, non-negotiation costs, and non-negotiation losses, as well as decreasing the negotiation costs and negotiation gains, contribute to the convergence time of the local government's choice of negotiation strategy. Increasing rewards and penalties, increasing the support gains, losses and decreasing the non-support gains, additional support costs will contribute to the convergence of the investor's choice of support strategy.
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