TRANSFORMATION OF STRATEGIC PLANNING OF THE STATE’S GEOECONOMIC STRATEGY UNDER CONDITIONS OF WAR AND UNCERTAINTY
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15330/apred.1.22.286-296Keywords:
strategic planning, geoeconomic strategy, adaptive strategizing, strategic foresight, scenario planning, economic security, public policy, warAbstract
This article examines the transformation of strategic planning as a foundation for shaping a state’s geoeconomic strategy under conditions of full-scale war and profound uncertainty. Geoeconomic strategy is understood as a system of strategic decisions aimed at ensuring economic security, strengthening energy and technological resilience, promoting international trade, attracting strategic investment, and advancing economic diplomacy. The relevance of the study stems from the fact that war, as a systemic shock, has exposed the limitations of traditional strategic planning models based on stability and predictability, highlighting the need for adaptive approaches to strategizing. The aim of the study is to provide a theoretical substantiation of the transformation of strategic planning as a foundation for shaping an adaptive state geoeconomic strategy under conditions of war and deep uncertainty, as well as to develop a conceptual framework for this transition.
The methodological framework combines theoretical generalization, comparative analysis, structural-logical modelling, document analysis of selected strategic policy documents of the European Union and Ukraine as illustrative cases, and a scenario-based approach. The theoretical foundation is built upon the concepts of emergent strategy, dynamic capabilities, and strategic foresight. The study identifies four key directions in the transformation of strategic planning: the transition from linearity to iteration, from sequential to parallel processes, from fixed to adaptive goal-setting, and from forecasting to scenario planning. Based on these transformations, the study develops an analytical framework for adaptive strategizing that explains the mechanism through which strategic planning is transformed in the process of shaping a state’s geoeconomic strategy.
The scientific novelty of the study lies in conceptualizing the transformation of strategic planning as a mechanism for shaping an adaptive state geoeconomic strategy through the integration of iteration, process parallelism, adaptive goal-setting, and scenario planning into a unified analytical framework.
The practical significance of the findings lies in their applicability to enhancing public strategic planning in the areas of economic security, energy policy, international trade, strategic investment, and post-war recovery through the adoption of adaptive decision-making mechanisms, scenario analysis, and strategic foresight. The proposed framework may also be applied in the education and professional training of public administration specialists and to strengthen cooperation among public authorities, research institutions, and think tanks in the development of joint geoeconomic and security strategies for Ukraine and the European Union.
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