INFLATION EXPECTATIONS UNDER WARTIME SHOCKS

Abstract

The article examines the conceptual foundations of the formation of inflation expectations under wartime shocks and substantiates their crucial role in ensuring macroeconomic stability and enhancing the effectiveness of the state's monetary policy. The purpose of the study is to generalize contemporary scientific approaches to interpreting the essence of inflation expectations, refine their theoretical definition, and systematize their classification features and determinants under the conditions of a full-scale war. The methodological framework of the study is based on general scientific and special research methods, including analysis and synthesis, logical generalization, comparative analysis, systematization, classification, as well as structural-functional and systems approaches, which enabled a comprehensive investigation of the economic nature of inflation expectations and the determinants of their formation. The generalization of the works of foreign and Ukrainian scholars made it possible to distinguish four conceptual approaches to the interpretation of inflation expectations: predictive, monetary-behavioral, process-information, and psychological. The scientific novelty of the study lies in substantiating the author's definition of the concept of inflation expectations, which, unlike existing approaches, comprehensively integrates predictive, informational, institutional, behavioral, and macroeconomic aspects of their formation. The classification of inflation expectations has been refined according to the method of formation, time horizon, degree of stability, and level of validity, while the specific features of their formation by different groups of economic agents have been systematized. It is substantiated that under wartime shocks the traditional mechanisms of forming inflation expectations undergo significant transformation under the influence of a complex set of interrelated macroeconomic, monetary, fiscal, production and logistics, energy, external economic, informational and psychological, institutional, and military-security factors. A comprehensive system of factors shaping inflation expectations has been proposed, reflecting the interrelationship between economic, institutional, and security determinants of inflationary processes. The practical significance of the research findings lies in the possibility of their application in developing monetary policy measures, improving the mechanisms for managing inflation expectations, strengthening confidence in the state's economic policy, and ensuring price stability under wartime challenges.