MULTIPLICATIVE MODELING OF THE FACTORS SHAPING STOCK MARKET TRADING VOLUME IN UKRAINE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15330/apred.2.22.162-181Keywords:
stock market, stock market capitalization, GDP, multiplicative models, factor analysis, deposits of legal entities, enterprises’ capital investments, enterprises’ financial performanceAbstract
The stock market is an important component of the financial system, whose development in Ukraine largely depends on macroeconomic conditions, the financial performance of enterprises, investment activity, and the state’s fiscal policy. Under martial law, particular relevance is attached to the study of the factors determining its functioning. The purpose of the article is to develop a multiplicative model for the formation of stock market trading volumes in Ukraine and to quantitatively assess the impact of corporate-financial, investment, fiscal, and macroeconomic factors on their dynamics. The study is based on official statistical data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, and the National Securities and Stock Market Commission of Ukraine for the period 2015–2024. The research employs multiplicative modeling, the chain substitution method, the integral-logarithmic factor analysis method, as well as comparison, generalization, and economic interpretation methods.
The paper develops an original system of interrelated coefficients reflecting the relationships among enterprises’ financial performance, corporate income tax, capital investments, deposits of legal entities, nominal GDP, and stock market trading volumes. Based on the proposed multiplicative model, the influence of each factor on changes in the resulting indicator was assessed. The findings demonstrate that the key drivers of stock market development are the profitability of the corporate sector, the transformation of financial resources into market assets, enterprises’ investment activity, tax efficiency, and the overall scale of economic development.
The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of an original multiplicative model that reflects the mechanism of transformation of corporate financial resources into stock market activity through the integration of corporate-financial, fiscal, investment, and macroeconomic indicators. The practical significance of the obtained results lies in the possibility of using the proposed model to analyze capital market development trends, forecast market activity, and improve the analytical support of managerial decision-making in the field of stock market development.
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